The Unavoidable Vision Failure: The Anglo-German First World War naval confrontation

Abstract

It is almost an impossible challenge for the military professional to predict how a hypothetical future conflict will run and end. When advising politicians, professional leaders will seek to present options that they estimate can bring the relatively cheap, early, and acceptable conclusion that both they and their Government hope for. However, the opponent is an independent actor, and he will do everything possible to avoid or at least delay an unfavourable outcome, and all action and interaction in war is influenced by friction and chance. Another reason why prediction is exceedingly difficult is that even known technologies have not been tested under realistic conditions. If the conflict lasts longer than a few months, latent or immature technologies will be developed to a level where they can influence the outcome of the conflict in a decisive way. It is not only the opponent that is an independent actor, so are allies and formally neutral states, and it is very hard to predict if and how the regulations of international law will be respected by belligerents during the conflict. All these areas of uncertainty are illustrated and highlighted in this case, where the focus is on the expectations and reality of the 1914–18 Anglo–German naval conflict in the North Sea.